Updated September 16, 2025 • 7–8 min read

TL;DR

• National home prices are tracking about 1–3% for 2025. No melt-up, no crash.
• The 30-year fixed sits near 6.35%. Baseline into year-end is mid-6s unless the 10-year Treasury and the mortgage spread break lower.
• Supply has climbed to ~4.6 months nationally, which is close to balanced. Strategy has to be local.

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Fed decision cheat sheet (so you don’t have to live on Twitter)

• What’s likely tomorrow (Sept 17): A 0.25% cut at 2 p.m. ET. That outcome is widely expected. It won’t automatically slam mortgage rates lower on contact.
• What actually moves mortgage rates: The 10-year Treasury and the mortgage‑Treasury spread. Unless those fall, the 30‑year fixed won’t.

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What changed this year

Rates dipped last fall, popped back above 7% in January, and have cooled into the mid-6s. That took heat out of bidding wars and gave buyers more options. Prices didn’t break; they flattened. Translation: 2025 is a grinder’s market. You win by underwriting well, not by riding a wave.

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Rates: normalization, not a plot twist

Today’s mortgage rate is high enough to matter and low enough to work if the deal pencils. Could we see a refi window next year? Maybe, if inflation keeps easing and long yields slip. You can’t bank on that. Underwrite today’s rate and treat any future drop as upside. For context, the 30-year recently printed about 6.35%, the biggest weekly drop in roughly a year.

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Prices: mostly sideways, with a few outliers

Nationally, growth is low single digits. Under the hood, there’s churn. Some Northeast and Midwest markets still move fast. Several Sun Belt metros are slower, with more price cuts and longer days on market. Don’t generalize from one chart. Pull the local numbers. Recent Case‑Shiller releases showed several consecutive seasonally‑adjusted monthly declines into early summer.

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Supply: the big shift

Months of supply around 4.6 means the national market is close to balanced. At the metro level, a handful of the top 50 have crossed into buyer territory (6+ months), many sit near balanced, and a chunk are still seller‑tilted. If you only remember one thing, make it this: strategy follows supply.

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Where to lean in 4Q 2025

• Buyer‑tilting Sun Belt: In places like Austin and Tampa, treat appreciation as a bonus. Focus on cash flow, conservative rent growth, and realistic insurance/maintenance.
• Cooling West: Tight submarkets still exist, but DOM is up and concessions are back. Be picky and demand proof, not promises.
• Steadier Northeast/Midwest pockets: Faster absorption and stickier demand. Expect more competition on good assets; win with prep, not with desperate offers.

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Investors Playbook

• Buy when months of supply is ~5–6+ and your rents cover a 6.5–7% mortgage with real‑world vacancy, taxes, insurance, and capex.
• Hold assets with sub‑5% debt or durable tenancy. Cash flow now; keep dry powder for 2026.
• Trim where supply sits >6 months, DOM is rising, and capex is stacking up.

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Fed‑day scenarios in one glance

25 bp cut, neutral tone

• 10-year Treasury: ±5 bps movement
• Mortgage impact: Flat to −5 bps
• Strategy: Keep your underwriting the same

25/50 bp cut, dovish tone

• 10-year Treasury: −10 to −20 bps
• Mortgage impact: −5 to −15 bps (with lag)
• Strategy: Nibble if cash flow already works

Hawkish cut or no cut

• 10-year Treasury: +5 to +15 bps
• Mortgage impact: Flat to +5 bps
• Strategy: Wait for cleaner math or more inventory

Those moves depend on the long end and spreads, not just the headline cut.

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How we track this at REMarketPulse

REMarketPulse refreshes weekly across hundreds of metros, blending public series with listing‑level signals. We surface supply pressure, price‑to‑rent, and market heat so you can act on what’s changing, not what trended last quarter. Methods and benchmark notes live in a short appendix, not in your face.

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Do something useful with this

Open your metro. Check months of supply, recent price cuts, and rent‑to‑payment math. If two of those lean your way, you’ve got a shot. If they don’t, you’ve got your answer. Go where the numbers cooperate.