15 States Now Have More Inventory Than Pre-Pandemic: The Buyer Opportunity Map
While headlines scream housing shortage, 15 states quietly crossed above 2019 inventory levels. The geographic split reveals where negotiating power shifted back to buyers.
Updated October 9, 2025 • 6–8 min read
TL;DR
- 15 states now exceed pre-pandemic inventory: Alabama, Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Hawaii, Idaho, Nebraska, Nevada, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Oregon, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Washington
- National still 10% below 2019 levels: The recovery is wildly uneven, creating geographic arbitrage opportunities
- Inventory growth slowing: YoY gains dropped from +33% to +17%, signaling the surplus window may be temporary
- Strategy matters more than timing: In these 15 states, supply pressure scores reveal which metros offer real buyer leverage vs. which remain tight despite state-level surplus
Everyone talks about the housing shortage. And they're right—nationally, active listings remain 10% below September 2019 levels. But that national average hides a massive geographic split.
Look, if you're sitting in Tampa or Phoenix right now, the "housing shortage" narrative probably doesn't match what you're seeing. Fifteen states have quietly crossed back above pre-pandemic inventory levels. In these markets, the script has flipped. Sellers are accepting contingencies again. Price reductions are common. Days on market stretch two weeks longer than peak season.
The question isn't whether inventory recovered. It's whether you're positioned in the right geography to capitalize on it.
The Fifteen
These states now carry more inventory than they did in September 2019:
Sun Belt Overbuilders
- Arizona
- Florida
- Texas
- North Carolina
- Tennessee
- Colorado
- Utah
- Idaho
- Nevada
The Quiet Surplus
- Alabama
- Oklahoma
- Nebraska
- Oregon
- Washington
- Hawaii
The Sun Belt cluster makes sense. Builders went on a spree from 2020–2023, chasing migration headlines. Remote work pulled people to Austin, Phoenix, Tampa. Developers responded. Then interest rates hit 7%, buyers blinked, and inventory stacked up.
The second group is more interesting. These aren't growth darlings. They're steady markets where inventory normalized without the boom-bust drama. That often signals more sustainable fundamentals.
Why This Happened
The Builder Boom
New construction completions surged in 2023–2024, especially in Sun Belt metros. Builders kept breaking ground even as mortgage rates climbed, betting demand would hold. It didn't. New home supply now sits at 9.8 months nationally—the highest level since before the Great Recession.
The Return-to-Office Correction
Remote work drove the initial migration wave. As some companies tightened hybrid policies in 2024–2025, part of that flow appears to have reversed. Anecdotal reports suggest second homes in mountain and beach markets are hitting the resale market. Inventory climbed in states like Idaho, Colorado, Hawaii.
The Insurance Squeeze
Florida and Texas are seeing forced selling as insurance costs spike. Some owners who bought in 2021–2022 at peak prices now face insurance premium increases of 40% or more in some cases. When costs exceed rental income or carrying capacity, listings follow.
Rate Lock-In Released
Sellers with 3% mortgages finally started listing as rates dropped from 7.5% to mid-6s. Not a flood, but enough to tip balanced markets into surplus in states that were already close to equilibrium.
The Numbers That Matter
National inventory growth has slowed dramatically. After hitting +33% year-over-year earlier in 2025, the latest reading shows just +17%. That deceleration tells you this surplus window might not stay open long.
Within the 15 states, metro-level variations are massive. Phoenix and Las Vegas show strong supply pressure despite being in surplus states—inventory is moving. Meanwhile, Tampa and parts of the Texas Triangle are seeing listings linger.
Take Austin as an example: supply pressure sits at 26.52 with a price-to-rent ratio of 24.75. That's a market where inventory exists, but thin margins mean you're betting on appreciation, not cash flow. Compare that to markets like Chicago at 67.71 supply pressure and 14.05 price-to-rent—completely different investment thesis.
This is why supply pressure scores matter more than state-level headlines. A state can have surplus inventory, but if supply pressure remains high (meaning new listings are getting absorbed quickly), you're not in a buyer's market. You're in a market that's normalizing, which is different.
What This Means for Strategy
If You're Buying
These 15 states offer what was unthinkable two years ago: time to think. You can include inspection contingencies. Appraisal contingencies. Financing contingencies. You can walk away if the deal doesn't work.
But don't confuse more inventory with bad markets. Population and supply dynamics are what matter. Florida and Texas still have job growth and in-migration. The inventory surplus just means you're not competing against 12 other offers anymore.
Check supply pressure and price-to-rent ratios at the metro level. If supply pressure is still above 50 and price-to-rent is below 20, you've found a sweet spot: active market, reasonable valuations, negotiating leverage.
If You're Investing
The 15-state list is a starting point, not a buy signal. Some of these markets entered surplus because they're declining (population exodus, industry collapse). Others entered surplus because builders overshot demand in growing markets.
Your job? Figure out which is which.
Green Flags:
- Strong job growth (healthcare, tech, advanced manufacturing)
- Price-to-rent ratios under 20 (cash flow still works)
- Supply pressure scores 40–60 (active but not frothy)
- Insurance costs stable or manageable
- In-migration positive or neutral
Red Flags:
- Inventory rising because population is leaving
- Price-to-rent above 25 (you're betting on appreciation)
- Supply pressure under 25 (listings aren't moving)
- Insurance or property tax spikes eating into returns
- Employment concentrated in one struggling industry
Dallas, Phoenix, and parts of Florida clear the green flag test. Other pockets of the 15 don't.
If You're Selling
If you're holding in one of these 15 states and planned to sell in the next year, don't wait for inventory to tighten. It might, but the trend has already slowed. The +33% YoY growth we saw earlier this year dropping to +17% means fewer new sellers are jumping in. That's your window.
Price it right. Accept reasonable contingencies. Move quickly. The market's giving you a shot here—inventory growth has decelerated, but that doesn't mean it's reversing yet.
The 35 States Still Below 2019
Context matters. While 15 states crossed above pre-pandemic levels, 35 states remain below. The shortage is real in most of the country. The Northeast and Midwest—outside of a few pockets—remain supply-constrained.
That's why this isn't a "housing surplus is here" story. It's a "housing surplus exists in specific geographies, and you need to know which ones" story.
The same national data can describe completely different markets. Atlanta and Austin are both Sun Belt metros with tech economies. Atlanta's inventory remains tight. Austin's has loosened. State-level and metro-level nuances drive outcomes, not national headlines.
When This Window Closes
Inventory growth is slowing. The +17% YoY we're seeing now was +33% six months ago. That deceleration suggests we're near the peak of this surplus cycle.
A few scenarios close the window:
1. Rates Drop to Low-6s or Below
If the Fed keeps cutting and mortgage rates hit 6% or lower, demand surges. Fence-sitters jump in. Inventory gets absorbed fast. Right now we're at 6.34%. If we hit 5.9% as some forecasts suggest by end of 2026, these surplus markets flip back to balanced or tight.
2. Builders Pull Back Further
New home supply at 9.8 months has already caused builders to slow permits and starts. If that pipeline dries up by mid-2026, the surplus eases. Builders don't stay irrational forever.
3. Forced Selling Ends
The insurance-driven listings in Florida and Texas are a one-time flush. Once those properties clear, that source of supply disappears. Same with the return-to-office correction—it's a level shift, not a sustained trend.
The opportunity exists now. It might exist in 6–12 months. It probably won't exist in 18–24 months if rates keep dropping and builders stay disciplined.
How to Use This
Don't chase state-level headlines. Dig into the metros within these 15 states. Look at supply pressure scores, price-to-rent ratios, job growth, and migration patterns.
Some of these 15 are in surplus because they're weak. Others are in surplus because they overbuilt in the face of strong demand. The second group is where opportunities live.
Explore Regional Markets → to see supply pressure, inventory trends, and price dynamics across metros in all 15 states. Filter by supply pressure above 40, price-to-rent below 20, and inventory changes over the past 6 months.
Because in real estate, the national story doesn't pay your mortgage. The local numbers do.